Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Can you see the bottom from here?

For the past year there has been an unending avalanche of ever increasingly bad economic news.
While at first, the disaster seemed to effect those living in, or those holding the paper on homes with "Sub-Prime" loans. Quickly, we found out that the problem was far larger than first thought, and as home prices fell, even those loans that should have had sufficient equity, became "Up-side-down" by falling prices.

We also had a rude awakening when we found that AIG and other institutions that should have been free of any exposure; had engaged in risky investments using "Sub-Prime" loans, hoping for double digit returns, rather than the safer, albeit lower return, products that insurance companies have traditionally used to build their portfolio. In some cases these "Higher returns" were allowing companies to cover up the fact that they were loosing money on the sale of their products.

So, with all of the "Bad News" that we have been inundated for the past year; it is wonderful to finally get some good news.The Dow which have plummeted to 6,469, has actually worked it's way back to 7,839 ( 22% gain). Sales of new homes posted an unexpected gain of 4.7 % in February,

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that orders for durable goods (manufactured products expected to last at least three years) increased 3.4 percent last month, Which was a surprise to economists that expected a 2 % fall .This was the first advance after a record six straight months of declines and the strongest single month gain in 14 months.

"The worst of the drop in (home) sales is over but a sustained recovery, still less price stability, is a way off still," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

Let's not kid our selves into thinking that the "Tough- Times" are over; or even that things in many sectors will not get worse before they begin to get better. But just maybe, this is a sign that at least the rate we are falling is beginning to slow. So let's hold out some hope that we are at least approaching the bottom, and that some positive economic news will be in our future.