When in doubt- Don't Panic

The simple truth is nothing causes panic quicker than being presented with figures that you can't trust.

This is particularly true in challenging financial times and additionally relevant following on the heals of the "Popping of the Housing bubble." We are going through a time when we are all paying closer attention to "The numbers" that companies are posting. We, as a whole, are additionally skeptical of the figures corporations are reporting, and are automatically "Shaving-off" a percentage of the "Good- news" while listening closely to an hint of a possible down-turn.

In this "New-World-Order, none of us want to get caught in the next "Bubble" or invest with the next Madoff. This has heightened our sense that "No News = Bad News." When faced with a company that is seen as holding-back on information, more than ever we will assume the worst. As a result, a company that might be reluctant to admit small financial losses; concerned the information will lower their stock price, will instead be met by a weary public that fears the "Real-Numbers" are far worse.

Insurers’ providing inadequate financial reporting trying to down-play a 10% drop, could hurt them-selves more by stirring uncertainty about their financial condition; and stoke fear that they are the next AIG.

Rating companies, reinsurance companies, investors and the public at large, are smart enough to expect a company to face challenges, especially in difficult times. What is most important in creating confidence, is to convince the public that your figures are solid, real and that you understand, and are willing to do what it takes to return to profitability. If the market can't trust the numbers your reporting, or there is a reporting vacuum, your company will the impact caused by the resulting panic.

Can you see the bottom from here?

For the past year there has been an unending avalanche of ever increasingly bad economic news.
While at first, the disaster seemed to effect those living in, or those holding the paper on homes with "Sub-Prime" loans. Quickly, we found out that the problem was far larger than first thought, and as home prices fell, even those loans that should have had sufficient equity, became "Up-side-down" by falling prices.

We also had a rude awakening when we found that AIG and other institutions that should have been free of any exposure; had engaged in risky investments using "Sub-Prime" loans, hoping for double digit returns, rather than the safer, albeit lower return, products that insurance companies have traditionally used to build their portfolio. In some cases these "Higher returns" were allowing companies to cover up the fact that they were loosing money on the sale of their products.

So, with all of the "Bad News" that we have been inundated for the past year; it is wonderful to finally get some good news.The Dow which have plummeted to 6,469, has actually worked it's way back to 7,839 ( 22% gain). Sales of new homes posted an unexpected gain of 4.7 % in February,

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that orders for durable goods (manufactured products expected to last at least three years) increased 3.4 percent last month, Which was a surprise to economists that expected a 2 % fall .This was the first advance after a record six straight months of declines and the strongest single month gain in 14 months.

"The worst of the drop in (home) sales is over but a sustained recovery, still less price stability, is a way off still," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

Let's not kid our selves into thinking that the "Tough- Times" are over; or even that things in many sectors will not get worse before they begin to get better. But just maybe, this is a sign that at least the rate we are falling is beginning to slow. So let's hold out some hope that we are at least approaching the bottom, and that some positive economic news will be in our future.