Thursday, October 4, 2007

Is China’s economic boom a threat?

Start picking up products at your home or office and count how many of them are “Made in China.”
It is impossible not to have recognized the startling growth of the Chinese economy. The question, “Is China’s economic boom a threat to the U.S.” is hotly debated and the answer quite unclear. The fact is a credible case can be made either way, with a substantial body of evidence backing the conclusions.

First the reasons for concern are obvious and include our loss of manufacturing jobs, China’s increasing economic influence, global environmental impact and an ever increasingly powerful military. Each, in it’s self a legitimate reason for our concern.

There was a time in American history when a person could graduate high school, get a job in a factory and earn enough money to buy a home, two cars, take a yearly vacation and maybe even share a set of season tickets to the bears. The number of good manufacturing jobs able to support the “American Dream” has dwindled, and clearly the availability of those jobs continues to fall. Some of these jobs have been lost to robotics, but the lions-share has simply moved to low wage markets; and China is the king of low cost manufacturing.

It is difficult to see how an American plant can complete against a plant in China, backed by the government, paying Seventy Five cents an hour, with no vacation or time off pay, using cheaper, at times dangerous materials banned in the U.S. China’s practice of keeping their currency artificially low, exacerbates the problem by giving them the ability to offer goods an unfair competitive price. The communist government also keeps the inflation rate low and keeps the workers poor. They are able to do so because of both their tight control as well as having an unlimited supply of low skill workers willing to take any job, making it almost impossible for workers to ask for higher wages.
The United States has benefited from being the worlds largest economy.
With size comes power and influence. We have been able to use the scale of our economy to attract foreign investment, have significant sway in the creation of international laws and have countries cater to the needs of our market. The same way a newspaper might be reluctant do a negative story about a company that is that papers largest advertiser, countries might let the importance of our market affect their political decisions. China’s economic stature has catapulted its ability to control world markets and has silenced, or at least lowered the volume of, complaints regarding their Human Rights violations.

China is currently the world's second biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. This is despite the fact that average person in China consumes only 10-15% of the energy an average used by a US citizen. Based on an objective analysis of the projected Growth of the Chinese gross national product, and the inevitable upward demand of their standard of living, one should expect China's total emissions to overtake America's by mid-century. This increase could more than offset any improvements and sacrifices made by Europe and the U.S. If one is to believe the “Doomsday predictions” of many environmentalists, the rise a energy consumption by China, and other developing nations is the greatest single threat to Mankind. Short of the most extreme, and least proven of the predictions, the general scientific community has come to recognize a connection between greenhouse gases and global temperatures. Even some of the most reluctant and conservative of the scientists, still view a large increase in CO2 as a point of concern. That said, it is difficult to see why this global condition would affect America more than China.

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There is no question that China’s military is becoming ever stronger and is interested in projecting its authority throughout the region and world. To date, they have not focused their might towards attacking their neighbors. But looming at the horizon is the ever-present reality that China considerers Taiwan a part of their country. One gets the impression that the communist government feels it has enough on it’s plate at the moment and can wait for the reunification. But China has made it clear not to mistake patience for a lack of resolve. America is in the awkward position of on one hand of formally recognizing the “One China” proposal, while at the same time having a pact to defend Taiwan against an attack from the mainland. This has the potential to draw the U.S. into a major war with the communistic regime. China military might also looms large over Japan, Korea and the whole south pacific. It is also well documented that China has Inter-continental ballistic missiles aimed at American cities -A fact that should concern every U.S. Citizen.
While we must keep a watchful eye towards Beijing, I can’t help but have some confidence in the pragmatic nature of its leaders. It appears clear that the leadership is determined to take their country forward and become a dominant force in the 21st century, while still maintaining its dictatorial control. The good news for us is that they will not be able keep control and bring the country forward. Up till this point their success has been based on manufacturing other peoples products, and doing so at near starvation wages. Even this amount of development has come at the expense of many of their communistic ideals. Chief among them is the Marxist mantra of “Each contributes according to his abilities, and receives according to his needs” This is in stark contrast to the fact that China is Ferrari’s fastest growing market (cars are priced at up to 3 million yuan ($A525,000) Ferrari and Maserati brands plans to open dealerships in 11 mainland cities over the next 18 months. Italian designer Giorgio Armani opened a Chinese flagship boutique last month in Shanghai, the country's business capital and richest city.
China is correct in recognizing the need to cater to those that have the skills and creativity to build a modern society, However in the long run they are wrong to believe that they will be able to control this new world the way they were able to manage the old agrarian country of Mao.

It is clear that Tiawan is banking on the idea that China starts to loose it’s dogmatic athority prior to it’s inevitable reunification. It is also clear that the comunists in power will fight to keep power. No one should ever forget the Tiananmen Square massacre Obviously, it is not the intention of leaders to ever surender power, but they are traveling down a path they do not truly understand. Shhh…. Don’t tell them, but they are supervising over the building of a society that will in the end not tollerate them. Yes they will fight tooth and nail to hold power, and yes we will see more incidences like Tiananmen Square. But in the end, they will fall because there is no place for them in a 21st century first world nation.


China, over the next 25 years is likely to become the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. There are many that believe that the best way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide would be, to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to improve China's energy efficiency. While there is a clear logic to such an investment, most in the U.S. believe Congress would never support such an approach, fearing it would undercut competitiveness of U.S. companies. The flip side is, one can view China’s need to generate large amounts of clean energy as an opportunity for American companies to sell products into China to meet these needs and perhaps reduce of trade deficit.A quick look at the coastlines in Asia point to the danger that rising oceans pose to China. While one can question some of the claims of environmentalists, there is no doubting the potential market for clean products.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

China goes UP as We go DOWN.

I see China as a threat, clear and simple.

Anonymous said...

Maybe.....

Maybe it all works out just fine in the end. But I'm afraid America is headed in the direction of France. That we are going to stop being a world power and that china is going to take that job away from us.

Maybe that's a good thing, but I don't think so!
Peter Barry
Pbarry01@hotmail.com

Larry said...

Peter, Maybe your right, that Im just being a bit on the sunny-side.

I can understand the case being made either way.