The Republican Party is Dead

by Larry Lubell

It is true that the GOP took a beating the other night. Despite two years of concerted effort to paint Obama as the personification of evil; some sort of "Left-wing radical, socialist,elitist, Muslim that attends a Christian church run by a nutty minister", the American people rejected the scare tactics and gave him a mandate to lead.. The simple truth is the electorate got to know Barack Obama, and man they saw, they information they got from trusted sources, just did not jive with the fear mongering being spewed from much of Talk radio and Fox.
The GOP lost seats in the House, the Senate as well as the White House, that said; anyone that thinks the Republican Party is Dead is a fool!
After each election, there are no shortage of "Talking Heads" telling us how the party that lost is somehow been thrown onto the garbage heap of history. I have a clear memory of being told The Democratic party was dead or dying after Reagan won, only to be told that the Republican party days were numbered after Clinton won the presidency. I did not believe any of that nonsense then, nor do I find it credible now. That is not to say that the Republicans are in a "Comfortable position" at the moment. Yes they will need to reexamine some strategies, positions and players going forward; but they are very far from Dead.
"I feel like Republicans dodged a bullet last night,' said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who said the climate now looked strikingly similar to the early days of the Clinton administration.
"After that election, Democrats held 57 Senate and 258 House seats," Ayres said. "Two years later, we took both houses back."
Barack Obama not only won a clear mandate Tuesday night, but he won with a coalition that dramatically altered the Electoral College map.This rethinking of "Red and Blue states" creates opportunities for Democrats after a long period of electoral victories for Republicans .While it is folly for the Democrats to write them off, to be sure, the "Right" has some serious problems to overcome. Their three clearest problems are the loss of Latino voters, young voters and lack of a strong "Bullpen" of candidates.
The power of the Latino vote is ever increasing in the US. Exit polling suggests that approximately 10 million Latino voters went to the polls this election. That represents an increase of nearly two million more voters or an increase near 24% over 2004.Obama's success among Latino voters in general, and young Latino's in particular, has many Republican strategists troubled over their party's long-term health.
"As the U.S. Latino population surges, we are seeing increases in registration and voter turnout due to increased naturalization numbers by Latino immigrants beginning in the 1990s and Latino youth coming of voting age" said Harry Pachon, Ph.D., President of TRPI.
"We've got to get a handle on these voters before they turn completely. They have become increasingly the key to a number of critical swing states."said one leading GOP strategist close to the McCain campaign, in response to Obama's 67 percent to 31 percent edge over McCain among Latino voters. Event the Florida Cuban-American population, typically seen as dependable block of Republican votes in the critical swing state, turned and supported Obama. It is going to be very difficult for any party to be a major national player without Hispanic support.
Eighteen year olds won the right to vote in time for the presidential election of 1972. Ever since, some pundits and politicians have declared each election cycle that this is going to be the year the youth vote flexes it's muscle; yet seldom is that the case. this year, however, the youth vote was a factor. One of the things worth noting is not just the vote totals, but the enthusiasm, and the numbers willing to not just vote, but to do the heavy lifting of working the polls and the get out the vote drive. The Democrats are in possession of a priceless list of dedicated "True-Believer's" email addresses. The Conservative movement is increasingly seen as a group of Middle-aged -white suburban voters, overwhelmingly dominated by men. This "Base" holds less and less appeal with 18-30 voters.
Part of the success of the Rove machine, was the ability to tarnish each young promising up and coming democrat, while maintaining their own stable of well known contenders. Today they seem to be short of viable candidates. Governor Schwarzenegger, is ineligible due to being a naturalized citizen, and is too liberal to appeal to the conservative base. Sarah Palin has proved she has a populist and liked by the conservative base, but has largely been cast as the scapegoat by the McCain campaign, and a joke by much of the center. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney might have the clearest path to the nomination is 2012, in part due to his massive personal wealth, but he has never really gathered much excitement. Gingrich also seems to have plans for a higher profile again, and perhaps seeking the nomination next time around. But he has been a polarizing figure in a country that seems to be looking for compromise.
If Obama, and the Democrats interpret the Mandate from this election to be " The nation wants to go back to the days of "Big Government" and or that the nation want's to adapt a "Liberal agenda" next election, the voters will toss the democrats out on their asses. The electorate was just sick a tired of Bush, the whole Karl Rove ideology, and world of divisive politics. That said, there is no indication that they want to switch "Right- Wing dogma for "Left-wing" dogma- they just want a government that puts solving the problems of real people over any sort of ideological agenda. After year of Americans wanting a divided government, the people now are looking for a government that actually gets things done, and puts the people needs first. If an Obama administration does that, the people will give them their support, if they put their agenda ahead of the people's; they will give the Republicans another shot.