Can you "Trust" the polls?

Larry Lubell

With the election just a few days away, polls show Senator Barack Obama has a built considerable lead over John McCain, but just how reliable are those figures.

The Bradley effect is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who ran for California governor in 1982. All of the California news papers had Bradley out in front of his Republican George Deukmejian.

On the day of the election, Exit polls confirmed Bradley wide lead; But Bradley and his supporters were surprised to find were wrong. After the contest pundits declared he lost due to "White voters" telling the pollsters "Sure I'll vote for a "Black man" but when they got behind the curtain, they just could not pull the lever.

ill CNN's senior political analyst,Schneider, said that if there is racism in this year's election, it's probably already showing up in the polls. And CNN's polling director,Keating Holland, pointed out another important fact
"We've never had a black presidential candidate as a major nominee, so the polls don't have any history at all when it comes to national elections," he said.

I think this is a very difference contest, not just because maybe we "Grew-up" a bit in the last 15 years, but also because these to candidates are polar opposites.
I have a number of close friends that I can say with total confidence:
1. Will not vote for Obama
2. Are not even slightly racist.

McCain and Obama have very different agendas and plan on setting distinct paths towards their vision.Anyone that would not want to vote for Obama do to race, could easily list a number of very credible reasons for casting their vote for McCain. This greatly reduces the "Need" for one to lie.

AVERAGE: Obama 50, McCain 43. (Obama +7%)

Method......................Latest Poll Per State
Obama...........................362
McCain..........................166
Poll of Polls
Obama...........................347
McCain...........................166
Rasmussen Reports
Obama...........................344
McCain...........................194
Quinnipiac
Obama...........................269
McCaine.........................128

There is however a very different factor effecting the reliability of the numbers. More and more people are dropping their "Landlines". When faced with the cost of both holding onto traditional phones plugged into a wall jack, as well as their cell phones; many choose just the cell. Fourteen percent of Americans now do not have landline phones and Pollsters normally don't call cell phones

Scott Keeter, who conducted a study for the Pew Research Center,says non-landline users are like others in their young demographic on political matters, but may differ on other issues

They are most likely to be under 30, unmarried, renters, making less than $30,000 a year, and are slightly more likely to be black or Hispanic, says Keeter.

"The fact that they are very different is the potential problem for polling," Keeter says.
Pollsters have learned. a lot from the small number of cell users they have been able to reach.. "It suggests that if there are enough of them, and you are missing them in your landline surveys, then your polls will have a bias because of that."

"It's not just cell phones, it is also VOIP" (Voice over Internet Provider), said Alan Craine, a telecommunications executive.. Vonage, Skype and all of the other I. P. based connections are often invisible to pollsters, you also have the "Do not Call List" out there today.

Telecommunications are forever changing said Mr. Craine.

With the election just over two weeks away, poll numbers showing Obama leading over John McCain, can switch quickly. Events change, candidates make mistakes, skeletons pop-up, and they are not always just Halloween decorations. All of this leaves us questioning, just how reliable are these figures.

Four Confess in Hanging of Obama Effigy

Larry Lubell
UrbanNewsBlog

Just to make sure, I checked my calendar, and confirmed that yes we are indeed in the year 2008, not 1908.

I would love to tell myself that America has moved away from overt racism and the vial hate that flows from those that hold such views. That now questions of "Class" have replaced hard-core racism.

I have been following the story that a effigy of Barack Obama was found hanging from a tree on the campus of George Fox Christian university University in Oregon. Today the Christian university said it has punished four students who confessed to hanging a likeness of Obama from the tree.

This kind of incident could be written off as the outrageous acts of a hand full of extremists. That would be upsetting, but easy to discount as statistical anomalies; the more unnerving part is the response of many of the readers of the article who left comments demonstrating that after reading the piece, they came- away with the idea that the four students were somehow the victims. With a choice of words I can picture coming only from people wearing a "White Hoods"; one of the comments included:

Stevie D
Too bad they didn't get the real Obama and all his stupid liberal views. Take his racist wife too.

SurpriseOctober
How did they know it was an "Obama effigy"? Did it have a tape recorder attached that droned on and on and on about "Hope" and "Change"?

It is clear, that while much of "Main stream" America has moved away from this type of overt racism, there are still those that refuse to abandon their vial hate-filled views. Instead of an overly optimistic conclusion that we Americans have left this garbage in our past, I need to take some solace in the fact that at least the center has moved. With Obama, the likely next president of the United States; this story show simultaneously how far America has come; as well as how much further we still have to travel.

UrbanNewsBlog
Urban Insurance Agency