Can you "Trust" the polls?

Larry Lubell

With the election just a few days away, polls show Senator Barack Obama has a built considerable lead over John McCain, but just how reliable are those figures.

The Bradley effect is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who ran for California governor in 1982. All of the California news papers had Bradley out in front of his Republican George Deukmejian.

On the day of the election, Exit polls confirmed Bradley wide lead; But Bradley and his supporters were surprised to find were wrong. After the contest pundits declared he lost due to "White voters" telling the pollsters "Sure I'll vote for a "Black man" but when they got behind the curtain, they just could not pull the lever.

ill CNN's senior political analyst,Schneider, said that if there is racism in this year's election, it's probably already showing up in the polls. And CNN's polling director,Keating Holland, pointed out another important fact
"We've never had a black presidential candidate as a major nominee, so the polls don't have any history at all when it comes to national elections," he said.

I think this is a very difference contest, not just because maybe we "Grew-up" a bit in the last 15 years, but also because these to candidates are polar opposites.
I have a number of close friends that I can say with total confidence:
1. Will not vote for Obama
2. Are not even slightly racist.

McCain and Obama have very different agendas and plan on setting distinct paths towards their vision.Anyone that would not want to vote for Obama do to race, could easily list a number of very credible reasons for casting their vote for McCain. This greatly reduces the "Need" for one to lie.

AVERAGE: Obama 50, McCain 43. (Obama +7%)

Method......................Latest Poll Per State
Obama...........................362
McCain..........................166
Poll of Polls
Obama...........................347
McCain...........................166
Rasmussen Reports
Obama...........................344
McCain...........................194
Quinnipiac
Obama...........................269
McCaine.........................128

There is however a very different factor effecting the reliability of the numbers. More and more people are dropping their "Landlines". When faced with the cost of both holding onto traditional phones plugged into a wall jack, as well as their cell phones; many choose just the cell. Fourteen percent of Americans now do not have landline phones and Pollsters normally don't call cell phones

Scott Keeter, who conducted a study for the Pew Research Center,says non-landline users are like others in their young demographic on political matters, but may differ on other issues

They are most likely to be under 30, unmarried, renters, making less than $30,000 a year, and are slightly more likely to be black or Hispanic, says Keeter.

"The fact that they are very different is the potential problem for polling," Keeter says.
Pollsters have learned. a lot from the small number of cell users they have been able to reach.. "It suggests that if there are enough of them, and you are missing them in your landline surveys, then your polls will have a bias because of that."

"It's not just cell phones, it is also VOIP" (Voice over Internet Provider), said Alan Craine, a telecommunications executive.. Vonage, Skype and all of the other I. P. based connections are often invisible to pollsters, you also have the "Do not Call List" out there today.

Telecommunications are forever changing said Mr. Craine.

With the election just over two weeks away, poll numbers showing Obama leading over John McCain, can switch quickly. Events change, candidates make mistakes, skeletons pop-up, and they are not always just Halloween decorations. All of this leaves us questioning, just how reliable are these figures.

McCain, I expected more from you

Larry Lubell

John McCain has a long history of serving America, In October 1967 he was shot down, badly injured, and captured by the North Vietnamese. there he remained a prisoner of war until 1973. He was subjected to unimaginable torture yet re refused to say or do those things that could have ended his suffering. To this day he still carries the scars of those days. He left the military and moved into politics being elected to the house in 1982, then elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986 where he still serves today.

John McCain has a long history of being a "Right of center" senator, yet he also has a record of working across party aisles with Republicans and Democrats alike to reform campaign finance system and Immigration .
While he was well known for having a temper, there was a feeling that he was a fair and decent guy, that could rise above partisanship and "put the country first"

It is with that in mind that I express my disappointment over the direction and tone that his campaign has taken. Rather that a discussion between two intelligent, informed candidates with different views on the direction forward; McCain has allowed his campaign managers, Running mate, and crowds to lower the race to base name calling and hate speech.

Activists at McCain / Palin rallies talk openly about Obama being linked to terrorists, or being a terrorist, claiming he has ties to Islam, and that he has some kind of "Secret evil agenda". Followers have been sending viral emails that have worked their way around the Internet for over a year now. To McCain's credit, in the early days of the campaign, he made several statements separating himself from those comments. But As he falls in the polls he has stopped making such corrections, and now seems to be encouraging such inaccurate statements, while keeping just enough distance.

"Terrorist!”
At a New Mexico rally, "Terrorist” screamed a follower. At a later rally when againMcCain called out to the crowd “Who is the real Barack Obama? a woman yelled "He's a damn liar!” "Get him. He's bad for our country."
"Obama Osama!" one woman called out at another rally. And it is not just a few in the crowd, twice this week, hand selected local officials have warmed up the crowd with cries of “Barack Hussein Obama.


A McCain aide said they tell individuals speaking before every event not to do so. “Sometimes people just do what they want,” explained the aide.
But that raises the question, If you can't control your supporters, how can you control the nation.

John Weaver, McCain’s former top strategist, said top Republicans have a responsibility to temper this behavior.
“People need to understand, for moral reasons and the protection of our civil society, the differences with Senator Obama are ideological, based on clear differences on policy and a lack of experience compared to Senator McCain,” Weaver said. “And from a purely practical political vantage point, please find me a swing voter, an undecided independent, or a torn female voter that finds an angry mob mentality attractive.”

“Senator Obama is a classic liberal with an outdated economic agenda. We should take that agenda on in a robust manner. As a party we should not and must not stand by as the small amount of haters in our society question whether he is as American as the rest of us. Shame on them and shame on us if we allow this to take hold.”

In Florida, Sarah Palin attacked Obama as someone who "pals around" with terrorists, ( based on an exaggerated account of Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers, a 1960's radical turned college professor) As she spoke their relationship, the crowd booed and one man shouted, "Kill him!"
Palin also repeats "This is not a man who sees America like you and I see America. We see America as a force of good in this world. We see an America of exceptionalism."

I do believe that John McCain loves America, and as a member of government, as a person paid by the people he has an obligation to speak out against that kind of hate speech. It lowers him, it lowers respect in our country, and it is dangerous. It is this kind of "rhetoric that leads to some nut picking up a gun.

I know he wants to win, and I am sure he believes that he is the better candidate. Of course he has no obligation to sing Obama's praises, but he does have a moral obligation to set the record straight, and to take his supporters to task if people are behaving in an offensive and dangerous manner. Ultimately, it reflects badly of McCain, and frankly I have come to expect McCain to exhibit a higher level of discourse.

McCain / Obama Debate Cancelled ?

Today, John McCain announced he'll suspend his campaign to return to Washington in order to focus on the economic crisis. McCain's campaign also stated that it wanted to push-back Friday's debate with Barack Obama, to an unspecified later date.

I applauded the wisdom of the McCain camp to cancel the first day of their convention; as a result of a category 4 hurricane hitting Texas. Clearly they did not want to be seen as having a "Party", wearing funny hats, and throwing "Red-meat" to the crowd while a split screen showed people's home being washed-away.

Political ploy or not, I like the idea that McCain is going back to Washington to do his job as a Senator at this crises point in our nations economy.I do have a problem with delaying Friday's debate with Obama.

At a time when the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, is asking for a $700. billion financial bailout, to save America from the worst financial disaster since the Depression, I think we need to hear what Obama and McCain plan to do to correct the mess one of them will inherit. A debate is not a party, a time for merriment, it is a time to hear both candidates stand up before us to explain and defend their ideas. A chance for us to decide who's strategy seems to ring most true, and whom do we trust to transport us from where we are now, to safer ground.

We need to here both men explain why they think the system collapsed, what they did while in government to help prevent the disaster; and most important what specific legislation they will seek to in act in response.

Albert Einstein said " No problem can be solved from the same consciousness that created it." It seems like the same people that brought America to the point of apocalypse, now want a blank check to fix the problems they caused.

I for one, would like to hear both men face each other directly, not through campaign mud slinging, let them both make the case why their the one to put things right.

Larry Lubell

Youtube/ the #1 place for news (or Rumors)

You do you trust for news and facts?
How can you tell if what you are seeing, reading or hearing is true, or even where it's coming from.

Here are a few to watch and decide for your self.

YouTube - McCain's YouTube Problem Just Became a Nightmare
Who's Trig's Mother?
Bristol Palin, Sarah Palins Out of Control Teen
KTVA, Local CBS Affiliate, Reports On Palin Trooper-Gate Sca
Sen. Barack Obama's Full Speech to the DNC
Barack Obama, Islam, Terrorists & Terrorism Obama is a Terrorist!
Old Man McCain Going Senile Before the Cameras
John McCain -- War Hero

Couture Wars

The "Right" bashes "Popular couture every chance they get, but they sure like to use the songs that couture creates.

John McCain's camp again finds it's self trying to defend the use of copyrighted material against the wishes of the creators and performers that brought the music to life.
This is not the first time the McCain team has had this problem, several months back, his campaign received a Cease and Desist from John Mellencamp demanding that they stop using his tunes "Our Country" and "Pink Houses.and again when In August, when Jackson Browne was outraged to find that Ohio Republicans used his song "Running on Empty" in an attack ad against Obama.

It raises two questions:
1. Why do members of the "Right" produce so little music worth listening to.
2. Were they as careful vetting the songs as they were their VP pick.

"I feel completely F#ck@d over," the band's Nancy Wilson told EW on Thursday night after their song was played following McCain's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. According to TMZ -- which broke the scandal, the band has filed a cease and desist order.

Palin has the nick name "Barracuda: so it is easy to see why playing the song had a certain degree of logic. The song was used as a theme for Governor Palin Wednesday night after her speech. The Band "Heart" acted swiftly by issuing a statement asking the campaign to stop use their of copyrighted material music..
"We hope our wishes will be honored," the band said in a written statement.

After three separate artists, and their legal representatives issued formal complaints, you would think the McCain camp would respect both the will of the artists or at least the law- No such luck. After the close of McCain's speech Thursday night, what song came through the PA system? You guessed it ... "Barracuda."

After the speech, Nancy and her sister Ann issued the following statement to EW:

"Sarah Palin's views and values in NO WAY represent us as American women. We ask that our song 'Barracuda' no longer be used to promote her image. The song 'Barracuda' was written in the late 70s as a scathing rant against the soulless, corporate nature of the music business, particularly for women. (The 'barracuda' represented the business.) While Heart did not and would not authorize the use of their song at the RNC, there's irony in Republican strategists' choice to make use of it there."
.
A legal representative of Browne stated "In light of Jackson Browne's lifelong commitment to Democratic ideals and political candidates, the misappropriation of Jackson Browne's endorsement is entirely reprehensible,"

Van Halen was also upset to find that Their song "Right Now" was used against their wishes at a rally announcing Palin as McCain's running mate.

If people were prosecuted for "Uploading" songs from Napster, how could the legal minds behind the convention not understand better than to "Steal"copyrighted intellectual property, and play it on a world stage.
Is this a question of F*ck Y@u, we will do what ever we want, or an example of carelessness Either way it raises questions about the campaign.

McCain VS Gustav

The Republicans are all set to begin their convention in St Paul. The halls are decked out the, airline tickets are paid for, hotel rooms are booked.
John McCain has selected Palin, The speeches have been written, the music selected. Nothing stands in their way except a possible category 3 Hurricane named Gustav.

“The Republicans can't seem to get a break when it comes to August and when it comes to the weather,” said Karl Rove, a FOX News analyst. “I know this is being thought a lot about in Washington and at the White House and discussed and I suspect they will monitor it carefully and figure out what to do.”
The Bush administration's slowness in getting life saving supplies to the victims of the Katrina catastrophe, subjected the president to widespread criticism for a lack of concern and incompetency.

As leading officials in New Orleans, announced possible evacuation plans ,The Federal Emergency Management Agency said it expects a "huge number" of Gulf Coast residents will be told to leave the region this weekend Many of these residents of the gulf coast have already began leaving the city. desperate not to miss their chance.
The image of a lavish Republican Party underway as a damaging storm strikes the Gulf Coast could serve as a painful reminder of the criticism the Bush White House suffered for its handling of Hurricane Katrina, which devastated coastal communities and New Orleans three years ago this weekend.
Gustav hit the heartland of Cuba's cigar industry Saturday as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph. The national Hurricane center projects the storm to intensify and shows Louisiana as the most likely point of landfall.
as it shrieked toward on a track to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, three years after Hurricane Katrina.As of Saturday am, the potential path still spans several hundred miles, but forecasters said there is a better-than-even chance that New Orleans will get slammed by at least tropical-storm-force winds and possibly take a direct hit.


"As we learned from Katrina, the death toll has a lot to do with the speed with which help can be delivered to those suffering"

Both the president and Vice President Dick Cheney are slated to speak on the opening night - though Bush is scheduled to fly on to the Camp David presidential retreat that night.
The Post notes. "A new major storm along the Gulf Coast would renew memories of one of the low points of the Bush administration, while pulling public attention away from McCain's formal coronation as the GOP presidential nominee.
Clearly this storm can be viewed through the eyes of Karl Rove, and the attitude of "How dare this storm effect our party"; but it could also be used as a means of separating a Mccain Administration from the incompetency and perceived indifference to the suffering and deaths of nearly 2,000 people.

Larry Lubell