Can you "Trust" the polls?

Larry Lubell

With the election just a few days away, polls show Senator Barack Obama has a built considerable lead over John McCain, but just how reliable are those figures.

The Bradley effect is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who ran for California governor in 1982. All of the California news papers had Bradley out in front of his Republican George Deukmejian.

On the day of the election, Exit polls confirmed Bradley wide lead; But Bradley and his supporters were surprised to find were wrong. After the contest pundits declared he lost due to "White voters" telling the pollsters "Sure I'll vote for a "Black man" but when they got behind the curtain, they just could not pull the lever.

ill CNN's senior political analyst,Schneider, said that if there is racism in this year's election, it's probably already showing up in the polls. And CNN's polling director,Keating Holland, pointed out another important fact
"We've never had a black presidential candidate as a major nominee, so the polls don't have any history at all when it comes to national elections," he said.

I think this is a very difference contest, not just because maybe we "Grew-up" a bit in the last 15 years, but also because these to candidates are polar opposites.
I have a number of close friends that I can say with total confidence:
1. Will not vote for Obama
2. Are not even slightly racist.

McCain and Obama have very different agendas and plan on setting distinct paths towards their vision.Anyone that would not want to vote for Obama do to race, could easily list a number of very credible reasons for casting their vote for McCain. This greatly reduces the "Need" for one to lie.

AVERAGE: Obama 50, McCain 43. (Obama +7%)

Method......................Latest Poll Per State
Obama...........................362
McCain..........................166
Poll of Polls
Obama...........................347
McCain...........................166
Rasmussen Reports
Obama...........................344
McCain...........................194
Quinnipiac
Obama...........................269
McCaine.........................128

There is however a very different factor effecting the reliability of the numbers. More and more people are dropping their "Landlines". When faced with the cost of both holding onto traditional phones plugged into a wall jack, as well as their cell phones; many choose just the cell. Fourteen percent of Americans now do not have landline phones and Pollsters normally don't call cell phones

Scott Keeter, who conducted a study for the Pew Research Center,says non-landline users are like others in their young demographic on political matters, but may differ on other issues

They are most likely to be under 30, unmarried, renters, making less than $30,000 a year, and are slightly more likely to be black or Hispanic, says Keeter.

"The fact that they are very different is the potential problem for polling," Keeter says.
Pollsters have learned. a lot from the small number of cell users they have been able to reach.. "It suggests that if there are enough of them, and you are missing them in your landline surveys, then your polls will have a bias because of that."

"It's not just cell phones, it is also VOIP" (Voice over Internet Provider), said Alan Craine, a telecommunications executive.. Vonage, Skype and all of the other I. P. based connections are often invisible to pollsters, you also have the "Do not Call List" out there today.

Telecommunications are forever changing said Mr. Craine.

With the election just over two weeks away, poll numbers showing Obama leading over John McCain, can switch quickly. Events change, candidates make mistakes, skeletons pop-up, and they are not always just Halloween decorations. All of this leaves us questioning, just how reliable are these figures.

This Stock Market is making me Nauseous

Wall Street had one of it's best days ever, the Dow Jones industrials we sent soaring almost 900 points. That would be fantastic if it was not coming after week of disaster and investors did not have the feeling that the market could turn on them in an instant.

52-Week Low 10/10/08 7,882.51
52-Week High 10/31/07 13,962.53

Range = 6,080.02

A range of over 6,000 points one year is insane.

Which makes me ask this question, can you tell the difference between

This .................. . or .......... . This

McCain, I expected more from you

Larry Lubell

John McCain has a long history of serving America, In October 1967 he was shot down, badly injured, and captured by the North Vietnamese. there he remained a prisoner of war until 1973. He was subjected to unimaginable torture yet re refused to say or do those things that could have ended his suffering. To this day he still carries the scars of those days. He left the military and moved into politics being elected to the house in 1982, then elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986 where he still serves today.

John McCain has a long history of being a "Right of center" senator, yet he also has a record of working across party aisles with Republicans and Democrats alike to reform campaign finance system and Immigration .
While he was well known for having a temper, there was a feeling that he was a fair and decent guy, that could rise above partisanship and "put the country first"

It is with that in mind that I express my disappointment over the direction and tone that his campaign has taken. Rather that a discussion between two intelligent, informed candidates with different views on the direction forward; McCain has allowed his campaign managers, Running mate, and crowds to lower the race to base name calling and hate speech.

Activists at McCain / Palin rallies talk openly about Obama being linked to terrorists, or being a terrorist, claiming he has ties to Islam, and that he has some kind of "Secret evil agenda". Followers have been sending viral emails that have worked their way around the Internet for over a year now. To McCain's credit, in the early days of the campaign, he made several statements separating himself from those comments. But As he falls in the polls he has stopped making such corrections, and now seems to be encouraging such inaccurate statements, while keeping just enough distance.

"Terrorist!”
At a New Mexico rally, "Terrorist” screamed a follower. At a later rally when againMcCain called out to the crowd “Who is the real Barack Obama? a woman yelled "He's a damn liar!” "Get him. He's bad for our country."
"Obama Osama!" one woman called out at another rally. And it is not just a few in the crowd, twice this week, hand selected local officials have warmed up the crowd with cries of “Barack Hussein Obama.


A McCain aide said they tell individuals speaking before every event not to do so. “Sometimes people just do what they want,” explained the aide.
But that raises the question, If you can't control your supporters, how can you control the nation.

John Weaver, McCain’s former top strategist, said top Republicans have a responsibility to temper this behavior.
“People need to understand, for moral reasons and the protection of our civil society, the differences with Senator Obama are ideological, based on clear differences on policy and a lack of experience compared to Senator McCain,” Weaver said. “And from a purely practical political vantage point, please find me a swing voter, an undecided independent, or a torn female voter that finds an angry mob mentality attractive.”

“Senator Obama is a classic liberal with an outdated economic agenda. We should take that agenda on in a robust manner. As a party we should not and must not stand by as the small amount of haters in our society question whether he is as American as the rest of us. Shame on them and shame on us if we allow this to take hold.”

In Florida, Sarah Palin attacked Obama as someone who "pals around" with terrorists, ( based on an exaggerated account of Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers, a 1960's radical turned college professor) As she spoke their relationship, the crowd booed and one man shouted, "Kill him!"
Palin also repeats "This is not a man who sees America like you and I see America. We see America as a force of good in this world. We see an America of exceptionalism."

I do believe that John McCain loves America, and as a member of government, as a person paid by the people he has an obligation to speak out against that kind of hate speech. It lowers him, it lowers respect in our country, and it is dangerous. It is this kind of "rhetoric that leads to some nut picking up a gun.

I know he wants to win, and I am sure he believes that he is the better candidate. Of course he has no obligation to sing Obama's praises, but he does have a moral obligation to set the record straight, and to take his supporters to task if people are behaving in an offensive and dangerous manner. Ultimately, it reflects badly of McCain, and frankly I have come to expect McCain to exhibit a higher level of discourse.

The rich get richer!

With the stock market in free-fall Banks around the world poised for collapse, and our elected officials talking about a trying to avoid a worldwide depression: I just received an email from Bentley telling me about their new, more deluxe version of the Arnage.

I'm not sure what is wrong with their marketing team that they believe that I might be a possible customer, but it is fun to pretend.

They begin by telling me how the auto is very exclusive. and that they will limit the edition to just 150 cars worldwide. This is truly good to know, otherwise I would expect to see one of these $275,000 cars parked in every driveway.
"Through a combination of commitment and timeless tradition, the Arnage Final Series is destined to become a true British classic".

"The sumptuously crafted interior of the Arnage Final Series features a waistrail with inset chrome strip and recessed Bentley marque badges, a leather steering wheel that has taken more than 15 hours of hand stitching, along with a burr walnut cocktail cabinet and veneered picnic tables."
When I read the car comes with a "Burr walnut veneered picnic tables", I can't help but find it difficult to picture the passengers actually making their own lunch. I find the image of the "Staff" preparing this "Picnic". Perhaps, the very thought that I would object to someone eating in my new $275,000 car, proves I can't afford to own one of these automotive works of art.

Of course I am not surprised by the fact the car sips gas at a rate of 9.8mpg Urban, clearly, the cost of petrol is beneath concern. That said I am a bit surprised by some of the options that do not come as standard equipment. For example the Silk Curtains to Rear Compartment will set you back an additional $9,490. And what's the use of having the curtain with out having a need for privacy, like maybe when you use the Entertainment Combination system that can be added for just $34,290.

Max. Speed 179mph / 288km/h
Acceleration 0 - 60mph 5.2 seconds
Acceleration 0 - 100km/h 5.5 seconds
Acceleration 0 - 100mph 12.1 seconds

The thing about buying a car like this is that you are buying into a "Lifestyle"
So how can you just skip over the matching luggage (sold separately)
For example this bag can be yours for just $2,500.

Well with all of the forclosures, Pink slips and general hard times that we find ourselves in today, it is nice to know that there will always be those that have a different set of problems; like should I buy the car in black or silver.
Larry Lubell

Four Confess in Hanging of Obama Effigy

Larry Lubell
UrbanNewsBlog

Just to make sure, I checked my calendar, and confirmed that yes we are indeed in the year 2008, not 1908.

I would love to tell myself that America has moved away from overt racism and the vial hate that flows from those that hold such views. That now questions of "Class" have replaced hard-core racism.

I have been following the story that a effigy of Barack Obama was found hanging from a tree on the campus of George Fox Christian university University in Oregon. Today the Christian university said it has punished four students who confessed to hanging a likeness of Obama from the tree.

This kind of incident could be written off as the outrageous acts of a hand full of extremists. That would be upsetting, but easy to discount as statistical anomalies; the more unnerving part is the response of many of the readers of the article who left comments demonstrating that after reading the piece, they came- away with the idea that the four students were somehow the victims. With a choice of words I can picture coming only from people wearing a "White Hoods"; one of the comments included:

Stevie D
Too bad they didn't get the real Obama and all his stupid liberal views. Take his racist wife too.

SurpriseOctober
How did they know it was an "Obama effigy"? Did it have a tape recorder attached that droned on and on and on about "Hope" and "Change"?

It is clear, that while much of "Main stream" America has moved away from this type of overt racism, there are still those that refuse to abandon their vial hate-filled views. Instead of an overly optimistic conclusion that we Americans have left this garbage in our past, I need to take some solace in the fact that at least the center has moved. With Obama, the likely next president of the United States; this story show simultaneously how far America has come; as well as how much further we still have to travel.

UrbanNewsBlog
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